Why politics is fun...

Two months is an eternity in American politics. Anything can happen. So anything we say now must be said with the caveat: “things can change.” But it appears we are moving closer and closer to a switch in Presidential leadership from Republican to Democrat.

While the Republicans are still in convention in Minneapolis, I’ve taken a look at the electoral map and here’s what I see: if the election were held today, Obama would win with 348 electoral votes and McCain would have 190. Of course, that is just my opinion.

Let’s look at the map of 22 battleground states mailed to supporters by the DNC. As long as Sarah Palin is on the Republican ticket, the Rs should take Georgia, North Carolina and, of course, Alaska. Bob Barr will pull some votes away from McCain in Georgia but not enough to put it in the Democratic column. They should also be able to take Indiana and North Dakota. McCain is ahead in Indiana right now, 46% to 42%. I’m also putting New Hampshire in the Republican column.

The rest of the battleground states should go Democratic. It will be tight but winnable in Colorado, Montana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida. Yes, it will be very tight in Ohio but Dems will pull out a victory there. Right now, polls show Obama and McCain even at 40% each in Ohio with 20% undecided. Obama has a lead of 47% to 45% in Virginia, 48% to 43% in Pennsylvania, 45% to 44% in Florida, 46% to 39% in Michigan, and a virtual tie in Colorado – one poll there shows Obama ahead with 46% to 43%, another shows McCain with a one point advantage, 47% to 46%.

The popular vote will be much closer than the electoral count, as I indicated in an earlier posting, with Obama getting 48.5% and McCain getting 45.5%. As we have learned from recent elections, the popular vote doesn’t always indicate the victor. Al Gore got 540,000 more votes than George Bush in 2000…and we all know how that turned out.

It is easy to make predictions and color in a map, but make no mistake about it, winning this election will not be easy. It will require the full dedication of all Americans who believe we desperately need new leadership to make that new map a reality. (BTW, there are numbers of interactive maps on the Internet that allow you to pick the states each party is likely to win in your estimation and you can see instantly how each state affects the outcome of the Electoral College vote.)