Will the Obama/McCain race be close?

Is this election close? Yes, right now the election is very close. Will it be close still in November? Maybe. Maybe not.

Here’s the way I see it:

Obama and McCain are virtually even. Both have about 44% of the vote. That’s 88% of the vote. The remaining 12% will likely go this way: 5% will be divided among Bob Barr (3%), Ralph Nader (1%), and one or two other candidates (1%). The final 7% is that small group of Undecideds and Independents who didn’t break earlier for either candidate. The battle over the next 60 plus days will be to determine who is able to persuade a majority of that group, just 7% of the vote, to join their camp. Remember, in 2000, neither major candidate got more than 50% of the vote. It was Gore with 48.38% and Bush with 47.87%.

I believe Obama-Biden will beat McCain-Romney 48.5% to 44.5%. It matters where the margin of victory comes from so the Electoral Map is the focus of both camps between now and Election Day.

By the way, Al Gore actually received 543,895 more votes than George Bush in 2000 but Bush was awarded victory through the electoral count – and in the final analysis, that is the only count that counts. The electoral count is the subject of a future posting, possibly done while listening to McCain drone on next week.